InstantMassFrequently asked questions
What InstantMass measures, where the numbers come from, and what they do and don’t mean.
- How many Massachusetts instant games are there, and how many does InstantMass track?
- InstantMass tracks every Massachusetts instant (scratch) game in the Lottery's current catalog — usually around 120–130 at any one time, as new games launch and older ones wind down through the year. Draw games such as Mega Millions or KENO aren't the focus here; the analysis is built for scratch tickets, where a fixed pool of printed prizes is drawn down as tickets sell.
- How often is the data updated?
- InstantMass re-checks the Massachusetts Lottery's published prize data — how many prizes exist at each level and how many are still unclaimed — three times a day (morning, midday, and evening), so a top prize claimed during the day shows up the same day. One dated snapshot is kept per game per day, with later runs refreshing that day's figures; that daily history is what powers the odds-over-time charts. The "last updated" stamp in the header always shows the most recent check.
- What are "current jackpot odds," and how are they estimated?
- Estimated odds of hitting a TOP prize on a single ticket right now, given how many top prizes and tickets are estimated to remain (“1 in X”). Lower is better. “1 in ∞” means no top prizes are left — a “dead” jackpot. To estimate them, InstantMass works out roughly how many tickets are still unsold — from the published prize counts and the game's overall odds — and compares that to the number of top prizes still unclaimed. It is an estimate, not an official figure.
- What do "edge" and "improvement vs launch" mean?
- Edge — Compares the share of top prizes still unclaimed with the share of tickets estimated still unsold. Positive = top prizes are depleting SLOWER than tickets (favorable for a jackpot hunter); negative = faster (unfavorable). Improvement vs launch — How much better (or worse) the current jackpot odds are compared with the game's launch-day jackpot odds. Above 1× means the odds are better now than at launch.
- What is the "Best games" page and the "Well-rounded right now" list?
- The Best games page re-presents the same ranked data by goal — best odds of winning anything, best value per $1, most-improved edge, best jackpot odds, biggest live jackpot — so you can jump to whichever matters to you. The "Well-rounded right now" list at the top highlights games that land in two or more of those goals at once: broadly strong rather than best at any single thing, with the qualifying goals shown so it isn't a black-box score. It introduces no new numbers — it's just a different view of the main rankings, and every pick is still a negative-expected-value bet.
- What does "return per $1" mean — how much do these games pay back?
- All prizes — Estimated prize money returned per $1 spent, counting every prize tier still available (remaining prizes × value ÷ remaining tickets ÷ price). It's below $1 for every game — the lottery keeps the difference (negative expected value). Top prize only — Estimated prize money returned per $1 spent counting ONLY the top-prize tier. It's a component of the all-prizes figure, so it's always less — most of a ticket's expected value is in the smaller prizes. In short: it's the estimated prize money paid back per $1 spent. Because it's below $1 for every game, that shortfall is the house edge — no MA scratch game is a positive-return bet, which is the nature of the lottery, not a flaw in any particular game.
- Can I still win if all the top prizes are claimed?
- Yes — lower- and mid-tier prizes can still be unclaimed and winnable. But the headline jackpot is gone: once every top prize has been claimed, a ticket has no chance at it. And the Massachusetts Lottery keeps selling a game's tickets after its last top prize is claimed, so it is possible to buy a ticket whose jackpot no longer exists. That is exactly why InstantMass flags "dead" jackpots and always shows how many top prizes remain.
- What does the Changes page show, and what do the "new," "ending soon," and "likely ended" badges mean?
- The Changes page rounds up what recently moved across the catalog: new games, games that turned favorable versus launch, top prizes claimed, and jackpots that went dead. The badges flag a game's status wherever it appears: "new" means it was just added to the catalog; "ending soon" reflects the Lottery's own published last-day-to-claim date; and "likely ended" is InstantMass's unverified inference that a game is no longer being sold — a hint, not an official status. Games with these badges still appear in the rankings rather than being hidden.
- Are these official odds?
- The overall odds of winning any prize ("1 in X") are the Lottery's official, published figure. The current jackpot odds, edge, improvement, and ticket-pool numbers are InstantMass's own calculations, derived from the published prize counts — estimates, not official numbers. They are most reliable as relative signals (which games have improved, which jackpots are dead) rather than as exact probabilities.
- Is InstantMass affiliated with the Massachusetts Lottery?
- No. InstantMass is an independent, unofficial tool. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or operated by the Massachusetts State Lottery Commission. Game names and logos are the property of their respective owners.
- Is InstantMass free?
- Yes. The full rankings, per-game prize breakdowns, depletion projections, and odds history are all free to use.
- Should I use this to decide what to buy?
- Treat it as information, not advice. Every lottery game has a negative expected value — over time, players lose more than they win — and better-than-launch odds on a long shot are still long odds. InstantMass only aims to make the published numbers easier to read. If gambling stops being fun or starts causing harm, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
More on the math behind these figures is on the methodology page, or head back to the ranked games.